CausalTree is an AI-powered scenario analysis platform that helps you understand causal relationships and predict outcomes through Bayesian networks.
We believe better decisions come from understanding how things are connected, not just predicting what will happen.
CausalTree makes causal reasoning accessible to everyone—from traders analyzing prediction markets to business leaders planning strategic decisions.
We're building the thinking companion for the age of uncertainty.
Every probability is traceable. See assumptions, not black boxes.
Let AI generate the causal structure. You focus on reasoning.
No PhD required. Start with a question, get a causal tree.
Start with a question like "Will inflation stay high?" and our AI generates a Bayesian network showing which factors (employment, supply chains, policy) influence the outcome—and how.
Adjust probabilities, add observations, and watch outcomes reorder instantly. See what information would actually change your mind—before you commit resources.
Analyze trending markets from Polymarket, Kalshi, and more. Click "Analyze Drivers" to instantly generate causal trees and understand what's moving the odds.
Analyze prediction markets, stress-test narratives, and understand what drives probabilities before placing bets.
Model strategic decisions, test market scenarios, and quantify risks in complex business environments.
Build causal models, analyze policy outcomes, and communicate complex relationships clearly.
All models are assumption-based. We don't hide that—we make it central. Every node shows its confidence, every edge shows its assumptions.
All probabilities are conditional. Change an assumption, see the outcome change. That's not a bug, it's the point.
Reasoning beats prediction. We don't promise to "forecast the future." We help you understand how the future depends on what happens next.
CausalTree is a thinking companion, not a signal service.
Join traders, analysts, and decision-makers using CausalTree to navigate uncertainty.